Durable orders fell againt in June:
The nominal value of new orders for durable goods fell -1.0% in June after a -0.8% drop in May as nondefense aircraft sales remain volatile. Excluding transportation equip. new orders fell -0.6% in June after near offsetting rise and fall in May and April. Nondefense capital goods less aircraft orders continued rising weakly in June shows increased vulnerability of another downturn with new orders still down -13.6% from June 2000.

New home starts down again in June:
New housing construction starts fell another -5.0% in June after plunging -14.9% in May. The 3-month average for both starts and permits fell again in June as in May. For the first time since last Nov. new starts and permits are now down yr/yr. With 61% more new homes completed in June than started, sharp job losses appear ahead with rising inventories further depressing equity values in a weakening economy.

Real weekly wages fell in June:
Even with falling prices, average real weekly wages bought -0.2% less in June as a shortened average workweek cut into recent wage gains. This is bad news for hard-pressed household budgets as effects fade from lower tax payments and higher federal payments at a time of renewed job losses.

May prices fell 3rd straight month:
Consumer prices again in June by -0.1% on lower gas prices and are now back to levels of Nov. 2009. Excluding energy and food, "core" prices rose 0.2% and are up, if weakly, for 17 of the last 18 months as deflation remains energy-related -- for now.

Manufacturing output fell -0.4% in June:
Manufacturing production fell -0.4% in June and manufacturers cut capacity to produce in the US again for a record 22nd consecutive month. Capacity also fell in 2002-'04 but before that it rose every month since records began in 1948. Offshoring production and capacity is severely undermining job and income growth.

Producer prices fell again on gas & food:
Wholesale prices fell another -0.5% in June, their 3rd consecutive montly decline as gas and food prices continue dropping. "Core" prices rose a modest 0.1% in June, up just 1.1% yr/yr, as few have pricing power and deflationary pressures spread.

May & June plunge in retail spending:
Nominal retail sales plunged -0.5% in June after falling -1.1% in May as Federal debt-stimulus fades while private investment and job growth remain weak and foreign import/outsourcing pressures rise. Retail sales are up yr/yr but still back to 2007 levels. With incomes and spending down in June, dangers of renewed downturn and deflation worsen.

Trade losses worsened again in May:
The trade deficit (production shortage) worsened sharply again in May as trade is undermining debt stimulus, job and income growth and cut GDP growth again in Q2. Trade losses for advanced tech products worsened in May and are on course for new yearly record loss of over -$80 billion. Auto sector losses are -77% worse this year than last on track for over -$100 billion in yearly losses. Strong export growth to global supply chains are far less than import payments/ borrowing. The trade deficit is already a larger share of GDP than at any time before 1999 and worsening, undermining the strength and sustainability of the recovery.

Private jobs stagnate in May and June:
The loss of -125k jobs in June only partially offset the huge temp gain of Census takers in May. But the private sector added just 116k jobs in the past two months and almost all are in temp agencies and leisure industries. Wages and the paid workweek both gave back May gains in June. Almost 1 million unemployed dropped out of the labor force in May and June lowing official unemployment to 9.5% even as long-term unemployed remained at record levels. Unemployment is likely to reach 10% again by the Nov. elections as, by far, the worst decade for jobs since the 1930s continues.

May incomes/spending up but vulnerable:
Sharply lower energy prices and expaned hours (for temps) sharply raised total real compensation and disposable incomes in May for the best 5-month gains since early 2007. With spending up only weakly, savings rebounded to 4% of disposable incomes. Percapita after-tax incomes are back above levels of Dec. '07 when the downturn began but this is only because of a near one-third decline in tax payments and one-quarter gain in government payments. Total real compensation and entrepreneurs' earnings remain lower than 30 months ago with the economy still dependent on essential but unsustainable govt. debt-stimulus and unwilling to impose effective trade and industry policies.

Stimulus drives up GDP at just 2.7% rate:
BEA's "final" GDP estimate for Q1 shows 2.7% rate of growth with two-thirds from inventory restocking. Worsening trade losses knocked another -0.8% off the growth rate and hard-strapped state/local government cutbacks cost another -0.5% of growth. Consumer spending rose by 3%, strongest in three years, but this lowered the "average" savings rate back to 3.5% of after-tax incomes. The strength and sustainability of the rebound is in doubt despite $trillion in stimulus as private investment continues to lag and trade losses widen.

Current Account losses worsening again:
The weak economic recovery drove up US Current Account losses to -$110 billion in Q1 from -$101 billion in 2009-Q4. That is, the weak US economy produced -$110 billion less than it spent, with net imports making up the difference requiring net foreign borrowing from China and others to pay for the imports. Since 2000, US Current Account losses -- production shortfalls and net foreign borrowing or asset sales -- now total -$5.8 Trillion or -$1.6 billion per day this decade. Figures are closely guarded for how much the debt industry takes in fees and interest on these debts or on the underlying financing of global trade and finance. Fees and interest only hurt those who pay them, but the life-blood of those that receive them.

Record low share of output for labor:
BLS reports that output and productivity rose in Q1 but real wages per hour continued falling. The gap that opened up in 1983 between productivity and real wages is now the worst on records that begin in 1947 as the benefits of productivity escape even the "average" worker.

Household wealth down -21.6% from peak:
The Federal Reserve reports that the nominal networth of all US households fell by another -$1.3 Trillion in '09-Q1 and plunged -$13.9 Trillion, -21.6%, since peaking in '07-Q2. Total networth is now down -4.5% over the past 4 years. These are by far the worst losses of household wealth on records to 1952 and likely since the early 1930s. Don't believe the "de-leveraging" hype; ratios of debts-to-assets and debts to networth worsened in Q1 as homeowner equity fell to another record of just 41.4% of property values. Homeowner held over 70% of their home's equity in the 1981-'82 downturn.

Selling-off strategic US assets worldwide:
The Commerce Dept. reports annual foreign direct investment (FDI) to form new business in the US in 2008 fell to just 6.7% of the total while FDI to acquire the worldwide assets of existing US firms rose to 93.3%. Since 1992, 90% of $2.2 Trillion in FDI has gone to acquire existing US assets worldwide. This represents the recycling of a portion of the US' current account deficit payments.

Home prices plunge, time on market soars:
New single-family home sales remained near post WWII lows in April even as average prices plunged a record -19.2% yr/yr and median time on the market soared to 10.9 months, another record. This suggests that existing home values will continue falling putting many more homes underwater and adding financial pressures to households already facing record debt levels and an awful jobs market.

Debt-service pmts. stay near record:
Even with their large fees, the largely unregulated financial "innovation" of subprime and payday lenders have not set introductory rates low enough to reduce debt service far below record levels of Q2 disposable incomes. With record debt levels rising and recent exotic "adjustable" rates beginning to convert, this burden will worsen quickly, further slowing other spending.

The 2001 Recession
The recession that started in March, 2001 following 10 years of only average economic growth, officially ended in November, 2001. By most measures of output, investment and job creation, the current cyclical "recovery" is the weakest on record.