Job losses stabilize at decade low:
February's jobs report shows another -36k jobs lost in the month but there were upward revisions for past months suggest stabilized job losses but at levels still down sharply from 10-years ago as the first lost decade for jobs since the 1930s continues. The economy remains extremely weak facing record debt levels and with no private engine of growth.

Lower tax pmts drive up after-tax income:
Even as real compensation was unchanged, after-tax incomes rose 0.2% again in Nov thanks to lower tax payments and still rising govt benefits. Since the recession started in Dec '07, real wages and self-employed incomes are down sharply but tax payments are down -33.1% and govt payments to individuals have soared, keeping after-tax percapita incomes up 0.5% and real spending down just -0.9%. Govt. actions prevented a far worse collapse of unregulated private finance and business but such massive deficit spending is unsustainable.

Stimulus drives up GDP at just 2.2% rate:
BEA's revised GDP estimate for Q3 shows 2.2% rate of growth as "cash for clunkers," first-time homebuyers tax credit, a buildup of unsold inventories, and Defense spending soared enough to overcome declines in non-residential investments and state/local government spending while trade losses worsened sharply. Reflecting loss of -768,000 jobs and falling wages in Q3, per-capita incomes fell and savings fell while total net national savings plunged the worst since 1933. The strength and sustainability of the rebound remains doubtful.

Current Account losses up to $1.2B per day:
The weak economic recovery drove up US Current Account losses to -$108 billion in Q3 from -$98 billion in Q2. That is, the weak US economy produced -$108 billion less than it spent in '09-Q3, with net imports making up the difference requiring net foreign borrowing from China and others to pay for the imports. Since 2000, US Current Account losses -- production shortfalls and net foreign borrowing or asset sales -- now total -$5.7 Trillion or -$1.8 billion per day this decade. Figures are closely guarded for how much the debt industry takes in fees and interest on these debts or on the underlying financing of global trade and finance. Fees and interest only hurt those who pay them, they are the life-blood of those that receive them.

Home permits/starts rebound in November:
New housing construction permits and starts rose sharply in November after falling in October. The more useful 3-month moving averages have fallen for the past three months as the new housing market appears to have stalled after strong, subsidy-driven gains in May and June.

Real wages down yr/yr to November:
Average real weekly wages bought 0.1% more in Nov. as the paid workweek rebounded from record lows. But weekly wages are down -0.7% yr/yr now that deflationary pricing has ended. Monthly wages fell in each of the past three months and in four of the past five months as effects of the too timid and too poorly focused stimulus fade.

October prices rise 0.4% on oil and gas:
Consumer prices in Nov rose driven by rebounding oil & gas prices. Yr/yr prices are now up 1.8% ending 8 consecutive months of yr/yr deflation. "Core prices were unchanged in November as few industires have pricing power and inflation fears are misplaced.

Industry capacity falls 11th straight month:
US industrial production jumped up 0.8% in Nov, the 4th increase in the past 5 months. Yet industry output remains -2.1% lower than in 1999 for the first decade-long decline since 1929-'39. Most important, capacity to produce in the US fell again in Oct for the 11th consecutive month. Capacity fell in 2002-'04 but before that it rose every month since records began in 1948. Offshoring production and capacity has severely undermined potential job and income growth.

Producer prices rebound in Nov on oil & gas:
Volatile wholesale prices soared in Nov, up 1.8% on sharply higher energy costs. Yr/yr wholesale prices are now up 2.4% ending 11 months of yr/yr deflation. Now, rebunding commodity prices are reversing the easy yr/yr sales and profit comparisons.

Retail spending continues rebound in Nov:
Nominal retail sales jumped again in Nov, rising 1.3% after a 1.1% rise in Oct. Retail sales are now up yr/yr for the first time since Oct '08. Excluding vehicles and gas, sales rose 0.6% in Nov, the 4th straight monthly rise. With weekly wages also rising in Nov, the jump in spending likely did not further lower savings rates but rising prices now start a new phase of this difficult economic time.

Trade losses are still -$1 Billion/day:
The trade deficit (production shortage) for the 31 days of Oct improved by 7.6% to -$32.9 after suring in Sept. by -17.6% to -$35.7 billion. The shortfall is paid with foreign borrowing, worsening US financial dependence on China and others. The auto sector suffered -$8.5 billion in monthly losses despite the worst production in over 30 years, 10s of thousands of layoffs and 10s of $billion in taxpayer bailouts. Yr-to-Oct manufacturing imports cost more than 4-times as much as the bill for all Mineral Fuels including crude oil. While this year's deficits are down sharply from last year, it is unprecedented for the US to have trade and production deficits during a deep downturn.

Lost jobs drives Q3 productivity spike:
Total paid hours worked in nonfarm business plunged at a -4.8% annual rate in Q3 as stimulus-induced output rebounded at a weak 2.9% rate. Thus, output per remaining paid hour worked (productivity) rose at a sharp 8.1% rate. The disparity of paid work and output was even worse for the Manufacturing sector. Over the past 13 and one-half yrs, total non-farm hours worked has declined; the first such loss on records back to 1947 and likely since at least 1933.

Plunge in October Durable goods orders:
The nominal value of new orders for durable goods fell -0.6% in Oct. and by -1.3% when volatile transport equipment are excluded to levels lower than in 1997. Nondefense capital goods less aircraft orders plunged -2.9% in Oct, the 3rd drop in four months, to nominal levels first reached in 1995. Federal programs drove a slight GDP rebound in Q3 but business investment fell and there remains no clear engine for future growth.

Household wealth down -21.6% from peak:
The Federal Reserve reports that the nominal networth of all US households fell by another -$1.3 Trillion in '09-Q1 and plunged -$13.9 Trillion, -21.6%, since peaking in '07-Q2. Total networth is now down -4.5% over the past 4 years. These are by far the worst losses of household wealth on records to 1952 and likely since the early 1930s. Don't believe the "de-leveraging" hype; ratios of debts-to-assets and debts to networth worsened in Q1 as homeowner equity fell to another record of just 41.4% of property values. Homeowner held over 70% of their home's equity in the 1981-'82 downturn.

Selling-off strategic US assets worldwide:
The Commerce Dept. reports annual foreign direct investment (FDI) to form new business in the US in 2008 fell to just 6.7% of the total while FDI to acquire the worldwide assets of existing US firms rose to 93.3%. Since 1992, 90% of $2.2 Trillion in FDI has gone to acquire existing US assets worldwide. This represents the recycling of a portion of the US' current account deficit payments.

Home prices plunge, time on market soars:
New single-family home sales remained near post WWII lows in April even as average prices plunged a record -19.2% yr/yr and median time on the market soared to 10.9 months, another record. This suggests that existing home values will continue falling putting many more homes underwater and adding financial pressures to households already facing record debt levels and an awful jobs market.

Debt-service pmts. stay near record:
Even with their large fees, the largely unregulated financial "innovation" of subprime and payday lenders have not set introductory rates low enough to reduce debt service far below record levels of Q2 disposable incomes. With record debt levels rising and recent exotic "adjustable" rates beginning to convert, this burden will worsen quickly, further slowing other spending.

The 2001 Recession
The recession that started in March, 2001 following 10 years of only average economic growth, officially ended in November, 2001. By most measures of output, investment and job creation, the current cyclical "recovery" is the weakest on record.